What is SOPR?

SOPR stands for Spent Output Profit Ratio. It was introduced by blockchain analyst Renato Shirakashi in 2019 and has since become a cornerstone of professional Bitcoin on-chain analysis.

The formula is deceptively simple:

A SOPR above 1.0 means coins are being moved at a profit, on average. A SOPR below 1.0 means coins are being moved at a loss.

How to read SOPR values

SOPR as a trading signal

The SOPR reset — a key entry signal

One of the most powerful SOPR patterns is the SOPR reset to 1.0. During bull markets, when SOPR pulls back toward 1.0, it means holders are only willing to sell at breakeven — indicating strong conviction and reluctance to take losses. This support at 1.0 often coincides with high-quality buy opportunities.

The logic: if the market can hold SOPR above 1.0 when it tests that level, it confirms that buyers are stepping in before sellers capitulate. This is structurally bullish.

The SOPR flip — bear market confirmation

In bear markets, the opposite is true. When SOPR repeatedly fails to hold above 1.0, it signals that sellers are forced to accept losses to exit positions. Each failed recovery attempt above 1.0 confirms distribution is dominating. The SOPR flip from support to resistance is a key bear market confirmation signal.

SOPR across Bitcoin cycles

Each Bitcoin halving cycle shows a recognizable SOPR pattern:

• Accumulation phase (post-capitulation): SOPR below 1.0 for extended periods, then gradual recovery
• Early bull market: SOPR stabilizes above 1.0, each dip toward 1.0 is bought aggressively
• Mid-cycle: SOPR ranges between 1.02 and 1.10 with healthy oscillations
• Late bull market: SOPR spikes above 1.20-1.30 as long-term holders begin distributing
• Blow-off top: SOPR extreme readings (1.40+) historically coincide with cycle peaks within weeks
• Bear market: SOPR below 1.0 for sustained periods, multiple capitulation events

Limitations and context

SOPR is powerful but requires context. Several factors can distort readings:

• Short-term vs long-term SOPR: The standard SOPR includes all UTXOs including those held for less than 1 hour. aSOPR (adjusted SOPR) removes outputs younger than 1 hour to filter noise. LTH-SOPR (long-term holder SOPR) isolates coins held 155+ days — historically the most predictive.
• Exchange-related movements: Large exchange transfers can temporarily distort SOPR without reflecting genuine profit-taking behavior.
• Network upgrades and migrations: Events that force UTXO consolidation can create artificial SOPR readings.

How HEVEA Genius uses SOPR

SOPR is one of the 4 core indicators in our HODL signal framework, alongside MVRV Z-Score, Exchange Netflow, and Puell Multiple. Here’s how we integrate it:

In practice, we monitor SOPR daily and watch for:

• Extended periods below 1.02 as accumulation confirmation
• Recovery and stabilization above 1.0 as trend confirmation after corrections
• Readings above 1.05 combined with other distribution signals for HEDGE timing
• Extreme readings above 1.15 as cycle-top warning (combined with MVRV Z-Score)

SOPR alone never triggers a signal. It is one component in a multi-dimensional framework designed to minimize false signals and maximize conviction before issuing any trade recommendation.