Glossary.

A proprietary composite score (0–100) synthesizing on-chain, technical, and macro signals. Used by the HEVEA Genius Research Team to determine signal direction and confidence. Above 60 = bullish bias; below 40 = cautious/bearish bias.

A HEVEA Genius positioning signal. Indicates that the composite on-chain score suggests the current zone is historically favorable for adding to long-term Bitcoin or Gold exposure. Not a specific price entry — a macro positioning context signal.

A HEVEA Genius positioning signal. Indicates that the composite on-chain score suggests elevated risk — historically associated with overvaluation or distribution phases. Signals a period to reduce exposure or apply hedging strategies.

A positioning signal. Indicates that the composite on-chain score does not suggest a strong bias in either direction. Default position when no clear accumulation or hedging signal is present.

A composite score synthesizing all dimensions of the HEVEA Genius research framework into a single value. Available live on the NEXUS dashboard. Used internally to determine the quality threshold for publishing PULSE and NEXUS setups.

Where Bitcoin currently sits in its 4-year market cycle. Used by HEVEA Genius to set signal bias and risk parameters. Determined by a combination of time since halving, MVRV, and on-chain metrics.

A Bitcoin scripting opcode that allows embedding arbitrary data in a transaction output. HEVEA Genius uses OP_RETURN to store the SHA-256 hash of each published signal on the Bitcoin blockchain — creating a permanent, tamper-proof timestamp before any market outcome is known.

A predefined price level at which to close a position and lock in gains. HEVEA Genius signals include multiple TP levels (TP1, TP2, TP3). A WIN is recorded when TP1 is reached before the stop loss.

The first take profit target defined in a PULSE or NEXUS signal. A WIN is recorded when TP1 is reached before the stop loss — regardless of subsequent price action. After TP1 is reached, the stop is moved to break-even automatically.

A price level at which a position is automatically closed to limit losses. Defined on every PULSE and NEXUS signal. If price reaches the stop before TP1, the signal is recorded as a LOSS.

The ratio of potential profit (distance to TP1) to potential loss (distance to stop loss). HEVEA Genius requires a minimum 2.0 R/R on all PULSE and NEXUS setups — meaning the potential reward must be at least twice the potential risk. A 2.0 R/R setup remains profitable at a 34% win rate.

Measures risk-adjusted return. Higher is better. Sharpe above 1 is considered good; above 2 is excellent. Used in the performance statistics to compare signal quality over time.

The time period during which a published signal is considered active. NEXUS: until 17:00 UTC on the day of publication. PULSE: 72 hours from publication time. HODL: 7 days from publication time. A signal that reaches neither TP1 nor stop within its validity window is recorded as EXPIRED.

The ratio of total wins to total losses (count-based). A profit factor above 1 means more wins than losses. Combined with R/R, it determines overall system profitability.

Compares Bitcoin’s current market cap to its realized cap (the aggregate cost basis of all coins). MVRV above 3 historically signals market tops; below 1 indicates undervaluation. The Z-Score variant normalizes by standard deviation. Primary indicator in the HGX scoring system.

The ratio between the price at which coins were spent and the price at which they were originally acquired. A value above 1 means coins are being sold at a profit. A value below 1 means coins are being sold at a loss — often indicating capitulation. Used to identify trend reversals.

The net flow of Bitcoin into and out of exchange wallets. Positive netflow (more inflows than outflows) suggests increased selling pressure. Negative netflow (more outflows than inflows) suggests accumulation and reduced selling pressure.

The total amount of BTC held on exchange wallets. Declining reserves signal accumulation (bullish); rising reserves indicate potential selling pressure (bearish). Tracked as a trend indicator over time.

The ratio of daily miner revenue (in USD) to the 365-day moving average of daily miner revenue. Identifies periods of extreme profitability (historically associated with market tops) and extreme stress (historically associated with bottoms) in the mining industry.

Bitcoin’s equivalent of a P/E ratio. Compares network market cap to on-chain transaction volume. High NVT = overvalued relative to on-chain activity; low NVT = undervalued. A useful long-term valuation signal.

Chart showing the age distribution of Bitcoin UTXOs. When long-term HODL waves expand, it indicates that strong hands are accumulating and not selling — a historically bullish signal. When short-term waves dominate, it signals increased speculative activity.

The periodic payment between long and short traders on perpetual futures markets. High positive funding = crowded longs = potential reversal risk. Negative funding = shorts dominant = potential squeeze. Used as a sentiment indicator.

An event that occurs approximately every 4 years (every 210,000 blocks) that cuts the Bitcoin block reward in half. The 2024 halving reduced the block reward to 3.125 BTC. Halvings reduce new supply issuance and have historically preceded major bull markets 12–18 months later.

A market cycle phase where informed investors buy Bitcoin at low prices before a major uptrend. Often identified via SOPR near or below 1, declining exchange reserves, and expanding long-term HODL waves.

The phase where early buyers sell to late entrants near market tops. Characterized by high SOPR, rising exchange inflows, and increasing short-term HODL waves. HEVEA Genius issues HEDGE signals during confirmed distribution phases.

A sustained uptrend in Bitcoin price, typically driven by halving cycles, institutional adoption, and on-chain accumulation signals. The HEVEA Genius framework positions LONG/ACCUMULATE during confirmed bull market phases.

A sustained downtrend, typically following the distribution phase. Characterized by capitulation events (SOPR below 1), declining network activity, and increased exchange inflows. HEVEA Genius issues HEDGE signals during confirmed bear phases.

A strategy of buying a fixed USD amount of Bitcoin at regular intervals regardless of price. Removes the need to time the market perfectly. Used in the HEVEA Genius Mining Projections section to model systematic accumulation strategies.

The average purchase price of your Bitcoin holdings. Compare to current price to calculate unrealized profit or loss. Tracked in the HEVEA Genius portfolio section.

The total computational power dedicated to mining Bitcoin across the entire network, measured in exahashes per second (EH/s). Higher hash rate = more secure network. A rising hash rate generally indicates miner confidence in Bitcoin’s price outlook.

A measure of how hard it is to find a valid Bitcoin block hash. Automatically adjusts every 2016 blocks (~2 weeks) to maintain an average 10-minute block time. When more miners join, difficulty increases; when miners leave, difficulty decreases.

The automatic recalibration of Bitcoin mining difficulty every 2016 blocks (~2 weeks). Ensures consistent block times regardless of total network hash rate. A positive adjustment means the network is growing; a negative one means miners are leaving.

The amount of newly created BTC awarded to a miner for successfully mining a block. Currently 3.125 BTC per block (post-April 2024 halving). Also includes transaction fees collected from all transactions in the block.

The fundamental unit of Bitcoin accounting. Each UTXO represents a discrete amount of BTC that has been received but not yet spent. When you spend Bitcoin, you consume UTXOs as inputs and create new UTXOs as outputs. HODL Waves are built by analyzing UTXO age.

The pool of unconfirmed Bitcoin transactions waiting to be included in a block by miners. During periods of high network activity, the mempool grows and transaction fees rise. Low mempool activity indicates relatively low network demand.

A second-layer protocol built on top of Bitcoin enabling fast, low-cost micropayments via off-chain payment channels. Transactions settle on-chain only when channels are opened or closed, allowing near-instant transfers at negligible cost.

A protocol that assigns a unique serial number to each individual satoshi and allows inscribing arbitrary data (images, text, code) directly onto the Bitcoin blockchain. Launched in early 2023.

A fungible token protocol on Bitcoin using OP_RETURN outputs, launched at the 2024 halving. More efficient and less blockchain-bloating than the earlier BRC-20 standard. Enables token issuance directly on the Bitcoin base layer.