Bitcoin Cycles

Bitcoin Halving &
On-Chain Signals.

Every ~4 years, Bitcoin’s block reward halves. The on-chain data patterns around each halving create some of the highest-conviction entry opportunities — if you know what to look for.

Halving Cycle History
Halving #1 — Nov 2012+9,000%
Halving #2 — Jul 2016+3,000%
Halving #3 — May 2020+700%
Halving #4 — Apr 2024In progress
Post-halving peak typically 12–18 months after event. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Puell Multiple

Miner Revenue Compression

The halving cuts daily miner issuance in half overnight. The Puell Multiple — which measures miner revenue against its 365-day average — drops sharply. Historically, low Puell readings post-halving have preceded major accumulation phases.

MVRV Z-Score

Valuation Reset

Halvings typically occur when MVRV Z-Score is in the « fair value » or « undervalued » zone. As the new supply/demand equilibrium shifts post-halving, MVRV tends to expand toward overvaluation — signaling the distribution phase.

LTH Supply

Long-Term Holder Accumulation

In the 6–12 months leading up to a halving, Long-Term Holder supply increases — patient capital accumulates in anticipation of reduced supply. Post-halving, LTH supply peaks as distribution begins at higher prices.

Not just the event.
The full cycle.

Most retail participants focus on the halving date itself. The fund’s methodology focuses on the 6 months before and 18 months after — where the real opportunities are concentrated.

HODL signals during pre-halving accumulation zones. PULSE signals capture the post-halving momentum phases. NEXUS precision setups during high-volatility expansion periods.

All signals blockchain-verified — so you can track exactly what was published and when, through every phase of the cycle.

1

Pre-halving accumulation (−6 to 0 months)

On-chain metrics converge on accumulation signals. HODL framework active — ACCUMULATE positioning when Puell Multiple and MVRV align.

2

Post-halving consolidation (0 to +3 months)

Miner capitulation risk period. Supply shock takes time to materialize in price. Patience-based positioning — HODL framework monitors for accumulation confirmation.

3

Expansion phase (+3 to +12 months)

PULSE and NEXUS signals activated as momentum builds. High R/R opportunities with defined entries and targets. Peak activity period for the signal framework.

4

Distribution & HEDGE (+12 to +18 months)

MVRV reaches overvaluation territory. HODL framework shifts to HEDGE positioning. NUPL and exchange inflows signal distribution phase onset.

Position for the cycle.

Get structured signals through every phase of the Bitcoin halving cycle. Starting at $9.90/month.