22 indicators. One structured framework.
HEVEA Genius monitors 22 on-chain, derivatives, and macro indicators. Signals are only published when multiple layers align — reducing noise and increasing precision.
How the framework works
No single indicator drives a signal. HEVEA Genius reads multiple data layers at once — and publishes only when the evidence aligns across categories.
Cross-category alignment
Signals require alignment across valuation, holder behavior, derivatives, and macro context. One bullish reading is never enough on its own.
Noise reduction by design
Most market commentary reacts to individual data points. The framework looks at patterns across indicators — reducing false signals and reactive noise.
Structured conviction scoring
When indicators align, the level of alignment determines the HGX Conviction Score. Higher alignment produces higher-conviction signals.
Continuous monitoring
Indicators are tracked continuously, not sampled once per cycle. The framework responds to structural changes as they develop.
Four indicator categories
The framework groups indicators into four major areas — each capturing a different dimension of market behavior.
On-Chain Valuation
3 indicatorsMeasures whether Bitcoin's market price is above or below its on-chain value baseline. Anchors signal context in structural over/undervaluation.
→ View indicatorsSupply & Holder Behavior
6 indicatorsTracks how BTC is moving, who holds it, and what their behavior suggests about accumulation or distribution.
→ View indicatorsDerivatives & Market Structure
6 indicatorsReads positioning, sentiment, and risk in futures and options markets — surfacing crowded trades and inflection points.
→ View indicatorsMacro & Contextual
6 indicatorsSituates Bitcoin within its broader economic context — rates, dollar strength, halving cycle, and large-participant positioning.
→ View indicatorsOn-Chain Valuation
Three indicators that measure Bitcoin's price relative to its on-chain value foundation.
MVRV Z-Score
HODLCompares Bitcoin's market capitalization to its Realized Capitalization, then normalizes the difference using standard deviation. The Z-Score removes cyclical bias to reveal structural over and undervaluation more clearly than raw MVRV.
Historically, extreme high Z-Scores have coincided with market tops; extreme lows with cycle bottoms. It is one of the most reliable long-cycle valuation anchors in Bitcoin on-chain analysis.
In HEVEA Genius: Used as a primary valuation layer in the HGX framework — high Z-Scores reduce ACCUMULATE signal conviction; low Z-Scores support it.
NUPL — Net Unrealized Profit/Loss
HODLNUPL measures the aggregate unrealized profit or loss across all Bitcoin holders as a proportion of market cap. It provides a real-time read on how much of the market is sitting in profit versus loss.
Extreme profit readings historically precede distribution phases. Extreme loss readings — where the market is broadly underwater — have coincided with capitulation bottoms and structural accumulation zones.
In HEVEA Genius: Tracks shifts between key NUPL zones (denial, anxiety, optimism, euphoria) as cycle context inputs.
SOPR — Spent Output Profit Ratio
HODLSOPR measures whether Bitcoin being moved on-chain is being transacted at a profit or a loss. A value above 1.0 means coins are on average moving in profit. Below 1.0 indicates coins are being spent at a loss — often a sign of stress or capitulation.
SOPR transitions through the 1.0 level are significant — resistance at 1.0 during downtrends and support at 1.0 during uptrends are reliable structural signals.
In HEVEA Genius: Used to confirm conviction direction. SOPR holding above 1.0 supports ACCUMULATE context; sustained SOPR below 1.0 supports HEDGE context.
Supply & Holder Behavior
Six indicators that reveal how Bitcoin is distributed, held, and flowing — and what long-term holders are doing.
Exchange Netflow
HODLNet BTC movement into or out of centralized exchanges. Positive netflow = more BTC entering exchanges (potential selling intent). Negative netflow = BTC leaving exchanges (accumulation / self-custody behavior).
Sustained negative netflow reduces immediate sell-side supply. Sudden positive spikes can precede price pressure.
LTH Supply — Long-Term Holder Supply
PULSEThe total BTC held by addresses that have not moved their coins in over 155 days. LTH Supply rising over time indicates growing conviction and reduced market liquidity.
When LTH Supply is at multi-cycle highs, the circulating supply available for sale is structurally limited. LTH Supply topping and beginning to decline is often an early distribution signal.
STH Supply — Short-Term Holder Supply
PULSEBTC held by addresses active within the last 155 days. STH Supply rising indicates new market participants and recently moved coins — increasing the proportion of the market sensitive to price movements.
High STH Supply during price rallies can increase fragility — new holders are more likely to sell during corrections. Monitoring STH vs LTH ratio provides structural context for volatility assessment.
Realized Cap HODL Waves
NEXUSHODL Waves segment Bitcoin's supply by age cohort (1 week, 1 month, 3 months, 1 year, etc.) and weight each cohort by its realized value. The result reveals where value is concentrated across the holder landscape.
Aging HODL Waves — where older cohorts grow — indicate structural accumulation. Young waves expanding rapidly signal speculative activity and potentially elevated risk.
Coin Days Destroyed
NEXUSA time-weighted measure of Bitcoin movement. Each coin accumulates one "coin day" per day it remains unmoved. When old coins finally move, the associated Coin Days are "destroyed." Large CDD readings mean old, dormant coins are being spent.
Sudden spikes in CDD can signal that long-term holders are beginning to distribute — an early warning indicator ahead of potential distribution phases.
Puell Multiple
PULSEThe Puell Multiple divides daily miner issuance revenue (in USD) by the 365-day moving average. It reveals whether miners are currently over or under-earning relative to historical norms.
Very low Puell readings indicate miner stress — historically associated with late-stage bear markets and accumulation zones. Very high readings suggest outsized miner revenue, which can create distribution pressure.
Derivatives & Market Structure
Six indicators that read positioning, sentiment, and risk in futures and options markets.
Funding Rates
PULSEPeriodic payment exchanged between long and short position holders in perpetual futures. Positive funding = longs pay shorts (bullish sentiment). Negative funding = shorts pay longs (bearish sentiment).
Persistently extreme positive funding signals an overcrowded long trade — often preceding sharp corrections. Persistent negative funding during price stability can signal a base formation.
Open Interest
PULSETotal value of open futures and options contracts. Rising Open Interest indicates new capital entering derivatives markets. Falling OI suggests position liquidation or reduced speculative activity.
OI context combined with price action reveals whether a move is supported by new conviction or at risk of unwinding. A price rise with declining OI can indicate a short squeeze rather than genuine demand.
Liquidation Heatmaps
NEXUSVisual representations of where clusters of leveraged positions would be forced to close if price moves to certain levels. These clusters act as magnets — price often gravitates toward them.
Understanding where large liquidation events would occur helps contextualize short-term price movements and identify levels with structural gravity.
Options Gamma Exposure
NEXUSGamma exposure measures how much options market makers need to hedge as price moves. High positive gamma near a price level creates stability (market makers buy dips, sell rallies). High negative gamma amplifies volatility.
Large options expiries and unusual gamma positioning can create temporary price gravity or volatility — providing short-term structural context for signal timing.
Stablecoin Supply Ratio
PULSECompares Bitcoin's market cap to the total supply of stablecoins. A lower ratio indicates a larger relative stablecoin reserve — suggesting more potential buying power relative to Bitcoin's market size.
A falling SSR signals growing dry powder relative to BTC cap, often associated with accumulation conditions. A rising SSR can suggest capital rotation away from stablecoins into risk assets.
Fear & Greed Index
HODLA composite sentiment index combining price momentum, volatility, social media volume, dominance, and survey data. Ranges from 0 (Extreme Fear) to 100 (Extreme Greed).
Extreme Fear readings have historically coincided with buying opportunities; Extreme Greed with elevated risk. HEVEA Genius uses it as a sentiment calibration tool — not a primary signal driver, but a useful contrarian context layer.
Macro & Contextual
Six indicators that situate Bitcoin within its broader monetary and economic environment.
Real Interest Rates
PULSEReal interest rates subtract inflation from nominal rates — revealing the actual cost of holding cash versus risk assets. Negative real rates historically benefit hard assets like Bitcoin and Gold by reducing the opportunity cost of holding them.
When real rates fall or go negative, capital tends to seek alternatives to cash. Rising real rates can create headwinds for non-yielding assets.
DXY Correlation
PULSEDXY is the US Dollar Index — a measure of the dollar's strength against a basket of major currencies. Bitcoin and DXY have historically shown an inverse relationship: when the dollar strengthens, Bitcoin and other risk assets often face headwinds.
Monitoring DXY trends provides a macro backdrop for Bitcoin's near-term environment. Dollar weakness has historically supported Bitcoin rallies; dollar strength has preceded corrections.
Bitcoin Halving Cycle
HODLBitcoin's protocol reduces the block reward by 50% every 210,000 blocks (~4 years). Each halving reduces new BTC supply entering the market. HEVEA Genius tracks the cycle position relative to the most recent halving (April 2024) to contextualize macro signal direction.
Post-halving phases have historically been followed by the strongest expansion periods in Bitcoin's price history. Cycle position informs signal duration and conviction thresholds.
Note: The most recent halving occurred April 2024 (block reward: 3.125 BTC).
COT Report — Gold Positioning
NEXUSThe Commitment of Traders (COT) report discloses the positioning of commercial and speculative traders in Gold futures markets. Since HEVEA Genius covers Gold alongside Bitcoin, Gold positioning is tracked as a macro sentiment and demand proxy.
Large shifts in Gold futures positioning by commercial traders often precede structural moves in the Gold market — and provide broader macro context relevant to Bitcoin's macro environment.
NVT Ratio
PULSENetwork Value to Transactions ratio compares Bitcoin's market cap to the value of on-chain transactions. Often described as Bitcoin's version of the price-to-earnings ratio — it indicates whether the network's valuation is supported by proportional economic activity.
A high NVT suggests the market cap is outpacing actual network usage — a potential overvaluation signal. A low NVT suggests the network is undervalued relative to its transaction activity.
Whale Transaction Alerts
NEXUSLarge Bitcoin transactions (typically above 1,000 BTC or $50M equivalent) moving between wallets, exchanges, and unknown addresses. These movements by large holders can signal strategic repositioning before significant market events.
Unusual whale activity — particularly large inflows to exchanges or movements from cold storage — often precedes significant price volatility and provides early structural context.
From indicators to signals
The indicators above do not generate signals individually. The framework does.
Continuous monitoring
All 22 indicators are tracked in real time across the four categories.
Cross-category alignment
The framework identifies when multiple indicators across different categories point in the same direction.
Conviction scoring
Alignment depth determines the HGX Score. Stronger alignment = higher conviction. No threshold, no signal.
Signal publication
When alignment and conviction meet the publication threshold, HEVEA Genius publishes a structured signal with direction, HGX Score, and sub-layer breakdown.
Which plan surfaces which layer
Different plans provide different levels of indicator depth and signal detail.
Core macro context: MVRV Z-Score, SOPR, NUPL, Halving Cycle, Fear & Greed, Exchange Netflow. Structured signal direction with HGX Score.
All HODL indicators, plus: LTH/STH Supply dynamics, Funding Rates, Open Interest, DXY Correlation, Real Interest Rates, Puell Multiple, Stablecoin Supply Ratio, NVT Ratio. Deeper conviction sub-layer data.
Full indicator framework access. Adds: HODL Waves, Coin Days Destroyed, Liquidation Heatmaps, Options Gamma, COT Report, Whale Transaction Alerts. Maximum signal depth and portfolio tooling.
All NEXUS indicators plus API access, webhook delivery, and programmatic signal integration.
All plans include a 30-day satisfaction guarantee. Annual billing available at 20% discount.
Why structure matters more than any single metric
The framework exists for a specific reason: the market punishes investors who rely on one indicator and ignore the rest.
Fewer false signals
Any single indicator can mislead in isolation. Cross-category alignment dramatically reduces false confidence.
Context-aware conviction
A bullish SOPR reading in a macro rate-tightening environment means something very different from the same reading in a rate-cutting cycle. The framework holds both at once.
Structured, not reactive
Because signals require alignment, they are not triggered by single-day data spikes. This removes a major source of reactive, emotionally-driven decisions.
Explainable decisions
Every signal carries its sub-layer scores. Members can see which categories are driving conviction — not just the output, but the reasoning behind it.
Long-term learning
Over time, members develop intuition for which indicator combinations precede different market phases. The framework is a learning tool, not just a signal machine.
Explore more
Common questions about the framework
Understand the market more clearly
The framework is only part of the picture. Members get access to the signals, scores, and tools built on top of it.