Research Framework
22 On-Chain Indicators.
One structured signal.
HEVEA Genius monitors 22 independent Bitcoin and Gold indicators daily. A signal is only published when 4 or more align — ensuring every call carries genuine conviction.
On-Chain Valuation
MVRV Z-Score
Market Value to Realized Value — normalized. Identifies overvaluation (distribution) and undervaluation (accumulation) phases with historical precision.
Read full guide →NUPL
Net Unrealized Profit/Loss. Tracks the aggregate profit/loss of all BTC holders. Extreme readings signal euphoria (sell) or capitulation (buy).
Learn more →SOPR
Spent Output Profit Ratio. Whether coins are being moved at profit or loss. SOPR crossing 1.0 signals trend changes in holder behavior.
Learn more →Supply & Holder Behavior
Exchange Netflow
Net Bitcoin flow in/out of exchanges. Sustained outflows signal accumulation and reduced sell pressure. A key HODL scoring indicator.
Read full guide →LTH Supply
Bitcoin held by Long-Term Holders (coins unmoved for 155+ days). Rising LTH supply confirms accumulation cycles.
STH Supply
Short-Term Holder supply. When STH supply peaks and LTH supply rises, distribution to strong hands is confirmed.
Realized Cap HODL Waves
Breakdown of Bitcoin supply by age of last movement. Visualizes capital rotation between short and long-term holders.
Coin Days Destroyed
Measures old coin movement. Spikes in CDD indicate long-dormant holders redistributing — a key distribution signal.
Puell Multiple
Miner daily revenue vs 365-day average. Extreme highs signal miner-driven distribution. Extreme lows signal capitulation bottoms.
Read full guide →Derivatives & Market Structure
Funding Rates
Perpetual futures funding rates. Extreme positive funding signals leveraged long crowding — contrarian bearish. Negative funding signals short squeeze potential.
Open Interest
Total open futures/options contracts. Rising OI with rising price confirms trend. OI spikes preceding liquidation cascades.
Liquidation Heatmaps
Clusters of leveraged position liquidations at key price levels. Used to identify magnetic price targets for NEXUS precision setups.
Options Gamma Exposure
Dealer gamma positioning. High positive gamma creates price stability (pin risk). Negative gamma amplifies moves — high volatility environment.
Stablecoin Supply Ratio
Ratio of Bitcoin market cap to stablecoin supply. High dry powder (high stablecoin ratio) historically precedes BTC accumulation.
Fear & Greed Index
Used as a contrarian context signal — not as a primary indicator. Extreme fear zones historically align with HODL ACCUMULATE signals.
Macro & Contextual
Real Interest Rates
Nominal rates minus inflation expectations. Negative real rates historically drive capital into scarce assets (Bitcoin, Gold).
DXY Correlation
US Dollar Index inverse correlation to Bitcoin and Gold. DXY weakness creates macro tailwinds for scarce asset appreciation.
Bitcoin Halving Cycle
Cyclical supply schedule creates predictable macro patterns in on-chain data. Halving cycle positioning is embedded in all HODL framework analysis.
COT Report (Gold)
Commitment of Traders positioning data for Gold futures. Commercial hedger vs speculator positioning reveals major turning points.
NVT Ratio
Network Value to Transactions Ratio. Bitcoin’s « P/E ratio » — compares market cap to on-chain transaction volume. High NVT signals overvaluation.
Whale Transaction Alerts
Transactions above 1,000 BTC monitored in real-time. Large inflows to exchanges precede sell pressure. Large outflows precede accumulation phases.
All 22 indicators. One framework.
Access the full indicator synthesis through any HEVEA Genius plan — from HODL at $9.90/month.
