Bitcoin Intelligence
Bitcoin Market Regime Dashboard
6 real-time dimensions determine the current Bitcoin market regime — updated every 6 hours by the HEVEA Genius Research Team using proprietary methodology
Composite score: 64.6 / 100 across 6 weighted dimensions
Proprietary Methodology
6 Dimensions — Full Spectrum Analysis
Each dimension is independently scored and combined through a proprietary weighting model calibrated by cycle phase.
Halving cycle position, long-term trend integrity, 200-week moving average relationship and macro cycle phase classification.
We’re at Day 372 of the current bitcoin halving cycle — historically the most constructive phase for sustained price appreciation.
14-day, 30-day and 90-day price momentum vectors, relative strength index across multiple timeframes, and composite trend strength score.
Price momentum remains constructive. Trend strength has moderated from peak levels — consistent with mid-bull consolidation and healthy digestion.
Exchange net flows, HODL wave distribution, active address growth rate, miner behavior patterns and long-term holder accumulation velocity.
Tracking whale on-chain activity confirms institutional accumulation continuing at depth below current spot price.
Fear and Greed composite index, social volume and topic velocity, derivatives funding rates and options market open interest skew.
Sentiment elevated but not euphoric. Derivatives funding rates are neutral — no systematic overheating signal detected in the current reading.
DXY inverse correlation, Federal Reserve rate cycle expectations, risk-on vs risk-off global environment and Bitcoin-to-Gold ratio trend direction.
Macro backdrop is mixed. Dollar weakness is supportive, but persistent rate uncertainty remains a structural headwind for risk assets including Bitcoin.
Realized vs implied volatility spread, Average True Range normalization across timeframes, Bollinger Band width contraction and options IV surface shape.
Volatility compression increasing. Historical patterns suggest a major directional move may precede the next regime reclassification event.
Historical Context
Regime Timeline — Last 12 Months
How the Bitcoin market regime has evolved over the past year, and where we stand today relative to that history.
Regime Intelligence
What Each Regime Means for Your Strategy
Each regime carries distinct statistical properties — forward returns, risk profiles and optimal positioning guidance derived from historical cycle data.
Accumulation signals are strongest during this regime phase — on-chain data and price action both confirm distribution exhaustion.
- DCA Strategy Maximum allocation
- Risk Level Low (historically)
- Avg 12M forward return +340%
- Typical duration 3 – 9 months
Confirmation of regime shift from accumulation. On-chain metrics begin to inflect upward. Price action becomes decisive with expanding volume.
- DCA Strategy Strong allocation
- Risk Level Low-Medium
- Avg 12M forward return +210%
- Typical duration 2 – 6 months
Trend intact but risk is rising. Set price targets, reduce new allocation frequency. Avoid chasing moves. Position sizing discipline is critical.
- DCA Strategy Reduce frequency, set targets
- Risk Level Medium-High
- Avg 12M forward return +85%
- Typical duration 3 – 12 months
Smart money exits. On-chain data shows long-term holders distributing coins to new market entrants. Sentiment peaks. Downside risk is elevated.
- DCA Strategy Pause, prepare exit
- Risk Level High
- Avg 12M forward return -42%
- Typical duration 1 – 4 months
Dashboard Access
Real-Time Regime Data by Plan
Every member receives regime intelligence. The depth and frequency of data scales with your membership plan.
- Live regime badge (4 regime states)
- Weekly regime update digest
- Confidence score indicator
- Email alert on regime change
- Full 6-dimension score breakdown
- Daily regime update (6h cadence)
- 12-month historical regime timeline
- DCA stance guidance per regime
- Instant Telegram alerts on change
- Real-time API access (JSON feed)
- Webhook delivery on regime shift
- Raw dimension score data feed
- Historical CSV export (3 years)
- Priority support access
View our verified track record to understand regime classification accuracy and historical performance.
Methodology
How the Regime Is Computed
Three sequential stages transform 47 raw data points into a single actionable regime classification — updated every 6 hours.
47 metrics are ingested every hour across all 6 dimensions — price action, on-chain activity, derivatives markets, macro conditions, sentiment and realized volatility. Data sources are cross-validated to eliminate anomalies and outliers before processing.
47 metrics / hourlyEach dimension receives an independent score from 0 to 100 using proprietary weighting algorithms developed by the HEVEA Genius Research Team. Weights are dynamically adjusted by current cycle phase — early cycle and late cycle carry fundamentally different risk profiles.
Cycle-adjusted weightingDimension scores feed an ensemble classification model that outputs a single regime label alongside a confidence percentage. A minimum threshold must be sustained across multiple consecutive readings before any regime change is triggered — filtering noise and preventing false signals.
Ensemble model outputQuestions
Frequently Asked Questions
Get Started
Track the Bitcoin Market Regime in Real-Time
Join members who receive structured regime intelligence every 6 hours — objective, data-driven and directly actionable.
Access the DashboardThe Bitcoin Market Regime Dashboard is provided by HEVEA Genius Research Team for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, trading advice or any other form of professional advice. The regime classifications, confidence scores, historical return statistics and forward-looking indicators are based on proprietary quantitative methodology and are subject to error, revision and model risk. Past performance of any regime classification or associated strategy does not guarantee future results. Bitcoin and digital assets are highly volatile instruments. You may lose some or all of your capital. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decision. Hevea Investment, Unit G, 15/F, TAL Building, 49 Austin Road, Kowloon, Hong Kong.
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