Bitcoin Market Regime Dashboard

6 real-time dimensions determine the current Bitcoin market regime — updated every 6 hours by the HEVEA Genius Research Team using proprietary methodology

Current Regime
BULL RUN
Confidence
78%
Last Update
6h ago
Live Regime Classification
BULL RUN

Composite score: 64.6 / 100 across 6 weighted dimensions

Model Confidence
78%
Signal Bias
ACCUMULATE with caution
Risk Level
MEDIUM-HIGH
DCA Stance
Reduce frequency
ACCUMULATION
Best entry zone
EARLY BULL
High momentum
BULL RUN
Trend continuation
Current
DISTRIBUTION
Exit zone

6 Dimensions — Full Spectrum Analysis

Each dimension is independently scored and combined through a proprietary weighting model calibrated by cycle phase.

Structure
72/100

Halving cycle position, long-term trend integrity, 200-week moving average relationship and macro cycle phase classification.

72 / 100

We’re at Day 372 of the current bitcoin halving cycle — historically the most constructive phase for sustained price appreciation.

Momentum
68/100

14-day, 30-day and 90-day price momentum vectors, relative strength index across multiple timeframes, and composite trend strength score.

68 / 100

Price momentum remains constructive. Trend strength has moderated from peak levels — consistent with mid-bull consolidation and healthy digestion.

On-Chain
74/100

Exchange net flows, HODL wave distribution, active address growth rate, miner behavior patterns and long-term holder accumulation velocity.

74 / 100

Tracking whale on-chain activity confirms institutional accumulation continuing at depth below current spot price.

Sentiment
61/100

Fear and Greed composite index, social volume and topic velocity, derivatives funding rates and options market open interest skew.

61 / 100

Sentiment elevated but not euphoric. Derivatives funding rates are neutral — no systematic overheating signal detected in the current reading.

Macro
55/100

DXY inverse correlation, Federal Reserve rate cycle expectations, risk-on vs risk-off global environment and Bitcoin-to-Gold ratio trend direction.

55 / 100

Macro backdrop is mixed. Dollar weakness is supportive, but persistent rate uncertainty remains a structural headwind for risk assets including Bitcoin.

Volatility
48/100

Realized vs implied volatility spread, Average True Range normalization across timeframes, Bollinger Band width contraction and options IV surface shape.

48 / 100

Volatility compression increasing. Historical patterns suggest a major directional move may precede the next regime reclassification event.

Regime Timeline — Last 12 Months

How the Bitcoin market regime has evolved over the past year, and where we stand today relative to that history.

Bear Market
Accumulation
Early Bull
Bull Run (current)

What Each Regime Means for Your Strategy

Each regime carries distinct statistical properties — forward returns, risk profiles and optimal positioning guidance derived from historical cycle data.

ACCUMULATION
Best entry zone — historically maximum reward

Accumulation signals are strongest during this regime phase — on-chain data and price action both confirm distribution exhaustion.

  • DCA Strategy Maximum allocation
  • Risk Level Low (historically)
  • Avg 12M forward return +340%
  • Typical duration 3 – 9 months
EARLY BULL
High momentum — trend establishing itself

Confirmation of regime shift from accumulation. On-chain metrics begin to inflect upward. Price action becomes decisive with expanding volume.

  • DCA Strategy Strong allocation
  • Risk Level Low-Medium
  • Avg 12M forward return +210%
  • Typical duration 2 – 6 months
BULL RUN
Trend continuation — manage risk actively

Trend intact but risk is rising. Set price targets, reduce new allocation frequency. Avoid chasing moves. Position sizing discipline is critical.

  • DCA Strategy Reduce frequency, set targets
  • Risk Level Medium-High
  • Avg 12M forward return +85%
  • Typical duration 3 – 12 months
DISTRIBUTION
Exit zone — capital preservation priority

Smart money exits. On-chain data shows long-term holders distributing coins to new market entrants. Sentiment peaks. Downside risk is elevated.

  • DCA Strategy Pause, prepare exit
  • Risk Level High
  • Avg 12M forward return -42%
  • Typical duration 1 – 4 months

Real-Time Regime Data by Plan

Every member receives regime intelligence. The depth and frequency of data scales with your membership plan.

HODL
$12 /month
  • Live regime badge (4 regime states)
  • Weekly regime update digest
  • Confidence score indicator
  • Email alert on regime change
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$49.90 /month
  • Real-time API access (JSON feed)
  • Webhook delivery on regime shift
  • Raw dimension score data feed
  • Historical CSV export (3 years)
  • Priority support access
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How the Regime Is Computed

Three sequential stages transform 47 raw data points into a single actionable regime classification — updated every 6 hours.

01
Data Collection

47 metrics are ingested every hour across all 6 dimensions — price action, on-chain activity, derivatives markets, macro conditions, sentiment and realized volatility. Data sources are cross-validated to eliminate anomalies and outliers before processing.

47 metrics / hourly
02
Dimension Scoring

Each dimension receives an independent score from 0 to 100 using proprietary weighting algorithms developed by the HEVEA Genius Research Team. Weights are dynamically adjusted by current cycle phase — early cycle and late cycle carry fundamentally different risk profiles.

Cycle-adjusted weighting
03
Regime Classification

Dimension scores feed an ensemble classification model that outputs a single regime label alongside a confidence percentage. A minimum threshold must be sustained across multiple consecutive readings before any regime change is triggered — filtering noise and preventing false signals.

Ensemble model output

Frequently Asked Questions

Regimes are designed for durability and actionability. Typically a regime persists for weeks to several months — rarely changing on a daily basis. The model requires a sustained, statistically significant shift across multiple dimensions before reclassifying. This design filters noise and ensures signals are actionable rather than reactive to short-term price volatility. When a genuine regime change does occur, all subscribers receive an immediate notification across their connected channels.
Yes — and we are transparent about this. The regime classification is a probabilistic model, not a guarantee. That is precisely why we display the confidence score alongside every classification. A 78% confidence means the model signals strong alignment but retains uncertainty. Black swan events, sudden macro shocks and regulatory developments can invalidate any quantitative framework regardless of sophistication. This dashboard is designed to improve decision quality over time, not replace individual judgment. Past classification accuracy is documented on our signal performance page.
These are two distinct but complementary analytical frameworks. The Bitcoin halving cycle operates on a 4-year (approximately 1,460-day) timescale — it describes where we are in the long-term structural epoch driven by programmatic supply issuance reduction. The market regime operates at a medium-term scale — weeks to months — and describes the current behavioral environment regardless of where we sit in the cycle. A single halving cycle can contain multiple regime transitions. Both dimensions are tracked inside the platform and should be used together for complete strategic context.

Track the Bitcoin Market Regime in Real-Time

Join members who receive structured regime intelligence every 6 hours — objective, data-driven and directly actionable.

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The Bitcoin Market Regime Dashboard is provided by HEVEA Genius Research Team for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, trading advice or any other form of professional advice. The regime classifications, confidence scores, historical return statistics and forward-looking indicators are based on proprietary quantitative methodology and are subject to error, revision and model risk. Past performance of any regime classification or associated strategy does not guarantee future results. Bitcoin and digital assets are highly volatile instruments. You may lose some or all of your capital. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decision. Hevea Investment, Unit G, 15/F, TAL Building, 49 Austin Road, Kowloon, Hong Kong.

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